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	<title>Warrandyte Chat</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.warrandytechat.com/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.warrandytechat.com</link>
	<description>A social blog for residents, organisations and businesses in and around Warrandyte</description>
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		<title>Fund raiser for the North Warrandyte CFA Brigade</title>
		<link>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2010/02/28/fund-raiser-for-the-north-warrandyte-cfa-brigade/</link>
		<comments>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2010/02/28/fund-raiser-for-the-north-warrandyte-cfa-brigade/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Feb 2010 22:22:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bushfire Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Environment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Events]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Public Shin-Digs]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.warrandytechat.com/?p=695</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>A fund raiser for the North Warrandyte CFA Brigadeorganised by the Bradleys Lane Community Fireguard Group under the Open Garden Scheme</p>
<p>Will be held at 98 Bradleys Lane, North Warrandyte on 13th and 14th March.  Entry $6.</p>
<p>Great variety of plants for sale &#8211; Morning and Afternoon Teas and Live music &#8211; all in a beautiful [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A fund raiser for the North Warrandyte CFA Brigadeorganised by the Bradleys Lane Community Fireguard Group under the Open Garden Scheme</p>
<p>Will be held at 98 Bradleys Lane, North Warrandyte on 13th and 14th March.  Entry $6.</p>
<p>Great variety of plants for sale &#8211; Morning and Afternoon Teas and Live music &#8211; all in a beautiful setting.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<item>
		<title>Warrandyte Festival 2010</title>
		<link>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2010/02/23/warrandyte-festival-2010/</link>
		<comments>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2010/02/23/warrandyte-festival-2010/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Feb 2010 09:58:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Events]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Life]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Public Shin-Digs]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.warrandytechat.com/?p=691</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Warrandyte community hosts their annual festival from Friday 19 to Sunday 21 March 2010 
<p>For Details look at the website Warrandyte Festival
</p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>The Warrandyte community hosts their annual festival from <strong>Friday 19 to Sunday 21 March 2010 </strong></h2>
<p><strong><span style="color: #ff0000;">For Details look at the website <a href="http://www.warrandytefestival.org/" target="_blank">Warrandyte Festival</a></span><br />
</strong></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Bugger the Polar Bears.  This is Serious</title>
		<link>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2010/02/15/bugger-the-polar-bears-this-is-serious/</link>
		<comments>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2010/02/15/bugger-the-polar-bears-this-is-serious/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Feb 2010 08:57:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Environment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Events]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Life]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Public Shin-Digs]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.warrandytechat.com/?p=683</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Saturday February 20th 7.30pm
<p>Warrandyte High School, Warrandyte-Heidelberg Road.</p>
<p>Rod Quantock, writer and comedian presents a show with a difference: his take</p>
<p>on climate change, population and the end of the world. Critically acclaimed by</p>
<p>The Age and The Australian. Entry Fee $30 with 50% of proceeds to support</p>
<p>the Environment East Gippsland group to help cover costs associated with</p>
<p>their [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2><span style="color: #33cccc;"><a href="http://www.warrandytechat.com/wp-content/uploads/Rod-Quantok.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-687" title="Rod Quantok" src="http://www.warrandytechat.com/wp-content/uploads/Rod-Quantok.jpg" alt="" /></a></span></h2>
<h2><span style="color: #33cccc;">Saturday February 20th 7.30pm</span></h2>
<p><strong>Warrandyte High School, </strong>Warrandyte-Heidelberg Road.</p>
<p>Rod Quantock, writer and comedian presents a show with a difference: his take</p>
<p>on climate change, population and the end of the world. Critically acclaimed by</p>
<p>The Age and The Australian. <strong>Entry Fee $30 </strong>with 50% of proceeds to support</p>
<p>the Environment East Gippsland group to help cover costs associated with</p>
<p>their efforts to save the region’s Brown Mountain Old Growth Forests</p>
<p>from being lost to wood chipping. <strong>PayPal Bookings online </strong>at</p>
<p><strong>www.eastgippsland.net.au </strong>- click on Donate and choose Rod Quantock</p>
<p>Fundraiser Show or <strong>Phone Ingrid 9870 8378 </strong>for other booking options.</p>
<h2><span style="color: #33cccc;"><strong>Warrandyte Festival</strong></span></h2>
<p><strong>Saturday, Sund ay Mar 21/22</strong></p>
<p>See WarrandyteCAN’s demonstrations of</p>
<p>the tools to help you make a difference</p>
<p>and contribute to emissions reductions.</p>
<p>Enter our competition to win</p>
<p>a fully installed and organic</p>
<p>soil filled steel Vegie Bed.</p>
<h2><span style="color: #33cccc;"><strong>Warrandyte Sustainability Expo</strong></span></h2>
<p><strong>Saturday April 1 7 10am-4.30pm</strong></p>
<p>Community Centre, Yarra Street Warrandyte</p>
<p>Up to 20 exhibitors of sustainable living</p>
<p>products and services for the home and</p>
<p>business, with information from the experts,</p>
<p>includes short presentations, music,</p>
<p>sausage sizzle, coffee and more.</p>
<p><span style="color: #99cc00;">WarrandyteCAN make a Difference!</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>Warrandytecan</strong></span></p>
<p><strong>Want to know more? Want to join WarrandyteCAN and help make a difference locally?</strong></p>
<p><strong>For further information: Wayne Rankin : </strong><strong>9844 4438</strong></p>
<p>CLIMATE ACTION NOW</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Bushfire Planning Workshops from the CFA</title>
		<link>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2010/01/18/bushfire-planning-workshops-from-the-cfa/</link>
		<comments>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2010/01/18/bushfire-planning-workshops-from-the-cfa/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 17 Jan 2010 19:02:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bushfire Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CFG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Environment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Events]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.warrandytechat.com/?p=676</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Hi All,
I hope that you all had a safe Christmas &#38; New Year and I wish you all the best for 2010.
We have had a few hot days and I trust that your “Fire Plans” have been activated accordingly. While we are currently experiencing some cooler weather it is warming up again later in the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi All,<br />
I hope that you all had a safe Christmas &amp; New Year and I wish you all the best for 2010.<br />
We have had a few hot days and I trust that your “Fire Plans” have been activated accordingly. While we are currently experiencing some cooler weather it is warming up again later in the week so enjoy the break while you can.<br />
In case you haven’t heard, the CFA are conducting a number of Bushfire Planning workshops throughout January &amp; February that may be of interest to some people. I have attached the flyer with all the details, can you please distribute this to your groups? Please note that bookings are essential to attend these sessions.<br />
As always don’t hesitate to call or email me if you have any questions or concerns.<br />
Till I see you again, stay safe.<br />
Cheers<br />
Troy Lowther<br />
Community Fireguard Facilitator<br />
Fire Ready Presenter<br />
<a href="mailto:t.lowther@cfa.vic.gov.au ">t.lowther@cfa.vic.gov.au</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.warrandytechat.com/wp-content/uploads/Bushfire-Planning-WORKSHOPS-JAN-FEB-101.pdf">Bushfire Planning &#8211; WORKSHOPS JAN FEB 10</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<item>
		<title>Confused? &#8211; I was!</title>
		<link>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2010/01/13/confused-i-was/</link>
		<comments>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2010/01/13/confused-i-was/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Jan 2010 04:20:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bushfire Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CFG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Environment]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.warrandytechat.com/2010/01/13/confused-i-was/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Hi All,</p>
<p>The past few days have brought a flurry of queries regarding the Fire Districts.  There are two districts relevant to bushfire which have different boundaries.</p>
<p>Total Fire Ban District  &#8211;  for legislation governing lighting of fires &#38; use of equipment to prevent ignitions of fire.</p>
<p></p>
<p>Yarra Area / Region 13 is in CENTRAL</p>
<p>2. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi All,</p>
<p>The past few days have brought a flurry of queries regarding the Fire Districts.  There are two districts relevant to bushfire which have different boundaries.</p>
<p>Total Fire Ban District  &#8211;  for legislation governing lighting of fires &amp; use of equipment to prevent ignitions of fire.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.warrandytechat.com/wp-content/uploads/cid_image001_gif@01CA9458.gif"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-670" title="!cid_image001_gif@01CA9458" src="http://www.warrandytechat.com/wp-content/uploads/cid_image001_gif@01CA9458.gif" alt="" /></a></p>
<p><span style="color: #ff0000;">Yarra Area / Region 13 is in CENTRAL</span></p>
<p>2. Fire Danger Ratings District – for prediction of likely bushfire behaviour, impact potential &amp; advice on action.</p>
<p>The FDR district is based on the weather districts of the Bureau of Meteorology. The advantage of this is being smaller districts they are more localised, however there still may be a large variance in the conditions across the district.  People on the borders of districts should consider both districts.</p>
<p><span style="color: #ff0000;">Yarra Area / Region 13 is in CENTRAL</span></p>
<p>The maps provide information about 2 different things although of course the declaration of a Total Fire Ban is dependant on weather conditions.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.warrandytechat.com/wp-content/uploads/cid_image002_gif@01CA9458.gif"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-671" title="!cid_image002_gif@01CA9458" src="http://www.warrandytechat.com/wp-content/uploads/cid_image002_gif@01CA9458.gif" alt="" /></a>Your planning for bushfire should be considering the Fire Danger Rating as well as if it is a TFB day. The triggers people use will vary – some use all TFB days as their trigger, others have different plans for different levels of FDR.</p>
<p>__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________</p>
<p>The Bureau of Meteorology also has the specific Fire Danger Index in chart format which lists the individual weather stations.  – this has caused some confusion.</p>
<p><span style="color: #339966;"><strong>The design of the chart lists the individual weather stations first then the district as a footer underneath. ( If you read it incorrectly with the district as a header it will read as though Coldstream &amp; Dunns Hill ( Ferny Creek )  is in Nth Central.- wrong ) </strong></span></p>
<p><span style="color: #ff0000;">The most relevant weather stations in Central District to Yarra Area / Region 13. are</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #ff0000;">Dunns Hill ( Ferny Creek ) </span></p>
<p><span style="color: #ff0000;">Coldstream </span></p>
<p>These 2 weather stations are recording the weather conditions at these 2 sites so it is very localised information.</p>
<p>____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________</p>
<p>Hope this helps in your planning &amp; in understanding predictions &amp; negotiating the new ratings.</p>
<p>Regards Helen</p>
<p>Helen Wositzky</p>
<p>Community Fireguard Coordinator.</p>
<p>CFA Yarra Area</p>
<p>18-22 Lakeview Drive</p>
<p>Lilydale, Vic.  3140</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Help from &#8216;Muddy&#8217; Owners required! The Blue Banded Bee</title>
		<link>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2010/01/13/help-from-muddy-owners-required-the-blue-banded-bee/</link>
		<comments>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2010/01/13/help-from-muddy-owners-required-the-blue-banded-bee/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Jan 2010 04:12:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Environment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Life]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.warrandytechat.com/?p=662</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>From Linda Rogan of FOWSP (Friends of Warrandyte State Park):</p>
<p>Hi Mick,
Hope all is going well out your way.  The cool change has certainly  been
welcomed.</p>
<p>I would like to utilize Warrandyte Chat to let people  beyond FOWSP know
about a Blue Banded Bee project we are starting at the  nursery.  We are
making nesting blocks for [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From Linda Rogan of <a title="F.o.W.S.P" href="http://fowsp.org.au/" target="_blank">FOWSP </a>(Friends of Warrandyte State Park):</p>
<p>Hi Mick,<br />
Hope all is going well out your way.  The cool change has certainly  been<br />
welcomed.</p>
<p>I would like to utilize Warrandyte Chat to let people  beyond FOWSP know<br />
about a Blue Banded Bee project we are starting at the  nursery.  We are<br />
making nesting blocks for these bees that dig holes in the  ground in order<br />
to nest.  It will be very helpful if we can acquire some  material from<br />
current Blue Banded Bees nests to rub on the bricks and  attract the bees<br />
with the smell of others.  They are nearby as they do visit  many of the<br />
flowers in the nursery. I have been told that it is not uncommon  for these<br />
bees to next in the walls of mud brick houses.  My plea is that  anyone who<br />
is aware of Blue Banded Bees or other native bees on their  porperty, contact<br />
me if they are happy for me to come and take a little of  the material (just<br />
the loose diggings and frass) for our project.  I have  attached a photo of<br />
the bee so people will know what they are looking  for.</p>
<p>Thanks,<br />
Linda</p>
<p><a href="http://www.warrandytechat.com/wp-content/uploads/BBBee6959.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-664" title="BBBee6959" src="http://www.warrandytechat.com/wp-content/uploads/BBBee6959.jpg" alt="" /></a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.warrandytechat.com/wp-content/uploads/BBBEE2a-9722.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-663" title="BBBEE2a 9722" src="http://www.warrandytechat.com/wp-content/uploads/BBBEE2a-9722.jpg" alt="" /></a></p>
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		<title>Runaway Goose</title>
		<link>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2010/01/13/runaway-goose/</link>
		<comments>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2010/01/13/runaway-goose/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Jan 2010 03:04:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.warrandytechat.com/2010/01/13/runaway-goose/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>A domesticated goose has turned up in the garden of one of my neighbours. here in North Warrandyte.  If you are missing one please rop me a line &#8211; Mick@WarrandyteChat.com</p>
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A domesticated goose has turned up in the garden of one of my neighbours. here in North Warrandyte.  If you are missing one please rop me a line &#8211; Mick@WarrandyteChat.com</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>News from the CFA</title>
		<link>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2010/01/08/news-from-the-cfa/</link>
		<comments>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2010/01/08/news-from-the-cfa/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Jan 2010 11:34:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bushfire Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CFG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Environment]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.warrandytechat.com/?p=659</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Hi to all FireGuard members.</p>
<p>Hope you all had a good Christmas &#38; New Year.</p>
<p>As you will be aware we are heading into a few hot days, keep aware of the Fire Danger Ratings and particularly local conditions over the weekend &#38; into early next week. I urge everyone to make sure their preparations are done [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hi to all FireGuard members.</p>
<p>Hope you all had a good Christmas &amp; New Year.</p>
<p>As you will be aware we are heading into a few hot days, keep aware of the Fire Danger Ratings and particularly local conditions over the weekend &amp; into early next week. I urge everyone to make sure their preparations are done and to activate their Bushfire Survival Plans.</p>
<p>Community messaging systems.</p>
<p>There are a number of community developed messaging and alert systems that are currently in operation using text messages to mobile phones, emails or web based messages. ( apart from your localised CFG group phone trees ). A few of these I am aware of are 19Fire and Firelinx, some CFG groups and individual CFG members have subscribed to receive messages through these systems.</p>
<p>It has come to our attention that some text and email messages received by people through some of these community developed systems have got CFG in the messaging. I have received some enquiries regarding this and for some people this is causing confusion regarding the origin &amp; source of the messages. To clarify this please note the following:</p>
<p>·       Community developed &amp; organised communication systems allow individuals to subscribe if they choose to receive information through these systems.</p>
<p>·       The messages are community generated messages from within the community and shared to those who have subscribed.</p>
<p>·       These systems are not part of the official Community FireGuard program, although CFG group members are of course free to subscribe to them if they wish.</p>
<p>·       These messages are not official CFA messages, they are not authorised messages from CFA and messages are not sent from the CFG program or authorised by the CFG program.</p>
<p>·       CFA or the CFG program has no input regarding the content of these messages, the frequency of messages sent, or the timing of when a message is sent.</p>
<p>·       All Bushfire Advice, Watch &amp; Act or Emergency Warning messages that are produced by the CFA are authorised and distributed to the official channels such as the CFA website, Radio and TV.</p>
<p>Gaining as much information through as many sources as possible regarding bushfires is an important part of your bushfire plans and community generated messages may be a valuable tool in gathering information.  We are not discouraging people from subscribing to any community generated messaging systems they feel may be of benefit, however it is essential to understand the information provided is coming from other community members not CFA.</p>
<p>Hope everyone is good &amp; stay safe over the coming weeks.</p>
<p>Regards Helen</p>
<p>Helen Wositzky</p>
<p>Community Fireguard Coordinator.</p>
<p>CFA Yarra Area</p>
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		<title>Beware &#8216;Bogus&#8217; Tree Loppers/Arborists</title>
		<link>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2009/12/19/beware-bogus-tree-loppersarborists/</link>
		<comments>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2009/12/19/beware-bogus-tree-loppersarborists/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Dec 2009 20:14:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bushfire Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Environment]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.warrandytechat.com/?p=655</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Playing on peoples fears, there are a number of labourers touring the area canvassing for work lopping and felling trees.</p>
<p>One group claims to be &#8220;approved by the CFA&#8221;.  One of residents checked this with the CFA who confirmed that they would never &#8220;approve&#8221; any such business.</p>
<p>Another, group duped one of our residents by doing work [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Playing on peoples fears, there are a number of labourers touring the area canvassing for work lopping and felling trees.</p>
<p>One group claims to be &#8220;approved by the CFA&#8221;.  One of residents checked this with the CFA who confirmed that they would never &#8220;approve&#8221; any such business.</p>
<p>Another, group duped one of our residents by doing work that had been booked with an established arborist. They did a terrible job, ignoring safety procedures, leaving a mess and damage to the property!</p>
<p>I would recommend checking out anyone making claims on the doorstep with a reference from a customer, checking that they are a bone fide business with appropriate levels of insurance.</p>
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		<item>
		<title>Fire weather Wednesday 16 Dec 2009</title>
		<link>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2009/12/14/fire-weather-wednesday-16-dec-2009/</link>
		<comments>http://www.warrandytechat.com/2009/12/14/fire-weather-wednesday-16-dec-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Dec 2009 07:29:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>admin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bushfire Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commentary]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.warrandytechat.com/?p=651</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From David Packham via Ralph at Licola:
<p>Greetings everyone</p>
<p>Below is another letter from David Packham on the fire risk, or lack of it,
for Wednesday 16 December.</p>
<p>Regards Ralph</p>
<p>The second letter from Willung to Licola for the 2009/2010 fire season.
Sunday 13/10/2009.
Dear Ralph
The recent rain events have greatly lowered the strategic fire risk. The
Ketch- Byram Drought Index (KBDI) has [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2>From David Packham via Ralph at Licola:</h2>
<p>Greetings everyone</p>
<p>Below is another letter from David Packham on the fire risk, or lack of it,<br />
for Wednesday 16 December.</p>
<p>Regards Ralph</p>
<p>The second letter from Willung to Licola for the 2009/2010 fire season.<br />
Sunday 13/10/2009.<br />
Dear Ralph<br />
The recent rain events have greatly lowered the strategic fire risk. The<br />
Ketch- Byram Drought Index (KBDI) has fallen by about 20 mm in the last two<br />
weeks whereas we would have expected it to rise by about 15 throughout the<br />
state. The KBDI is now more average.<br />
The deep litter in the wet forests may be still unusually dry even though<br />
the surface fuels have taken up the recent rain. I do not expect that we<br />
will have any catastrophic fires or even any serious fires for the rest of<br />
2009 or even into the first two weeks of January.<br />
The four-day fire weather forecast is showing an extreme fire weather day<br />
for next Wednesday 16 Dec.  Such an early extreme day can be very serious,<br />
for example the Lara fires on 8 Jan 1969 caused 16 deaths, fourteen along<br />
the Melbourne &#8211; Geelong Road. However that was a month later and we<br />
currently have significant greenness and useful recent moisture.<br />
The predictions for Wednesday 16 Dec 2009 show an average FFDI for Victoria<br />
of 45 with Tullamarine (my worst case indicator) forecast to be 71 for<br />
forests but only 12 for grasslands. The Victorian FFDI translates to a rate<br />
of spread of 1.6 kph. Flame heights of 26m and maximum spotting of 4.8 km.<br />
The Byram Fire Intensity Index is 24 Megawatt per metre, which is ten times<br />
the maximum for frontal attack and at least twice the maximum survival level<br />
if caught in the fire front.  If a major fire occurs the maximum deaths<br />
could go as high as 16 for the State.    However at this stage I would<br />
expect that the recent rain and the low curing state would result in a lot<br />
of noise and no major fires.  It looks as though some tropical rain may<br />
occur with the change which would return things to normal very quickly.<br />
I expect that with the present sensitivity any even small fires that occur<br />
will be beaten up. It will be essential to monitor Wednesday as it<br />
approaches to detect any worsening or easing in the fire weather that is<br />
being forecast.<br />
If there is no more rain then the second or third weeks in January 2010 may<br />
result in some bushfires if the McArthur Fire Danger Index (FFDI) climbs<br />
over 50. Similar comments may be made for the Grasslands although a sudden<br />
drying or curing could occur in the last week of December.<br />
I notice that the afternoon analysis is including a serious change for the<br />
NE on Thursday with embedded thunderstorms. With the tropical moisture<br />
around it could be serious for those areas with bare soils as a result of<br />
the high fuel levels that were burnt in 2007 and 2009. I hope without any<br />
avidence that the 2003 disaster area have recovered enough to be less<br />
dangerous to high rainfall events.<br />
I do hope Wednesday and Thursday turn out to be without problems as the folk<br />
of Victoria have truly had enough.<br />
Best regards           David</p>
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