Will be held at 98 Bradleys Lane, North Warrandyte on 13th and 14th March. Entry $6.

Great variety of plants for sale – Morning and Afternoon Teas and Live music – all in [...]]]> A fund raiser for the North Warrandyte CFA Brigadeorganised by the Bradleys Lane Community Fireguard Group under the Open Garden Scheme

Will be held at 98 Bradleys Lane, North Warrandyte on 13th and 14th March. Entry $6.

Great variety of plants for sale – Morning and Afternoon Teas and Live music – all in a beautiful setting.

The past few days have brought a flurry of queries regarding the Fire Districts. There are two districts relevant to bushfire which have different boundaries.

Total Fire Ban District – for legislation governing lighting of fires & use of equipment to prevent ignitions of fire.

Yarra Area / Region 13 is [...]]]> Hi All,

The past few days have brought a flurry of queries regarding the Fire Districts. There are two districts relevant to bushfire which have different boundaries.

Total Fire Ban District – for legislation governing lighting of fires & use of equipment to prevent ignitions of fire.

Yarra Area / Region 13 is in CENTRAL

2. Fire Danger Ratings District – for prediction of likely bushfire behaviour, impact potential & advice on action.

The FDR district is based on the weather districts of the Bureau of Meteorology. The advantage of this is being smaller districts they are more localised, however there still may be a large variance in the conditions across the district. People on the borders of districts should consider both districts.

Yarra Area / Region 13 is in CENTRAL

The maps provide information about 2 different things although of course the declaration of a Total Fire Ban is dependant on weather conditions.

Your planning for bushfire should be considering the Fire Danger Rating as well as if it is a TFB day. The triggers people use will vary – some use all TFB days as their trigger, others have different plans for different levels of FDR.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The Bureau of Meteorology also has the specific Fire Danger Index in chart format which lists the individual weather stations. – this has caused some confusion.

The design of the chart lists the individual weather stations first then the district as a footer underneath. ( If you read it incorrectly with the district as a header it will read as though Coldstream & Dunns Hill ( Ferny Creek ) is in Nth Central.- wrong )

The most relevant weather stations in Central District to Yarra Area / Region 13. are

Dunns Hill ( Ferny Creek )

Coldstream

These 2 weather stations are recording the weather conditions at these 2 sites so it is very localised information.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Hope this helps in your planning & in understanding predictions & negotiating the new ratings.

Regards Helen

Helen Wositzky

Community Fireguard Coordinator.

CFA Yarra Area

18-22 Lakeview Drive

Lilydale, Vic. 3140

Hope you all had a good Christmas & New Year.

As you will be aware we are heading into a few hot days, keep aware of the Fire Danger Ratings and particularly local conditions over the weekend & into early next week. I urge everyone to make sure their [...]]]> Hi to all FireGuard members.

Hope you all had a good Christmas & New Year.

As you will be aware we are heading into a few hot days, keep aware of the Fire Danger Ratings and particularly local conditions over the weekend & into early next week. I urge everyone to make sure their preparations are done and to activate their Bushfire Survival Plans.

Community messaging systems.

There are a number of community developed messaging and alert systems that are currently in operation using text messages to mobile phones, emails or web based messages. ( apart from your localised CFG group phone trees ). A few of these I am aware of are 19Fire and Firelinx, some CFG groups and individual CFG members have subscribed to receive messages through these systems.

It has come to our attention that some text and email messages received by people through some of these community developed systems have got CFG in the messaging. I have received some enquiries regarding this and for some people this is causing confusion regarding the origin & source of the messages. To clarify this please note the following:

· Community developed & organised communication systems allow individuals to subscribe if they choose to receive information through these systems.

· The messages are community generated messages from within the community and shared to those who have subscribed.

· These systems are not part of the official Community FireGuard program, although CFG group members are of course free to subscribe to them if they wish.

· These messages are not official CFA messages, they are not authorised messages from CFA and messages are not sent from the CFG program or authorised by the CFG program.

· CFA or the CFG program has no input regarding the content of these messages, the frequency of messages sent, or the timing of when a message is sent.

· All Bushfire Advice, Watch & Act or Emergency Warning messages that are produced by the CFA are authorised and distributed to the official channels such as the CFA website, Radio and TV.

Gaining as much information through as many sources as possible regarding bushfires is an important part of your bushfire plans and community generated messages may be a valuable tool in gathering information. We are not discouraging people from subscribing to any community generated messaging systems they feel may be of benefit, however it is essential to understand the information provided is coming from other community members not CFA.

Hope everyone is good & stay safe over the coming weeks.

Regards Helen

Helen Wositzky

Community Fireguard Coordinator.

CFA Yarra Area

One group claims to be “approved by the CFA”.  One of residents checked this with the CFA who confirmed that they would never “approve” any such business.

Another, group duped one of our residents [...]]]> Playing on peoples fears, there are a number of labourers touring the area canvassing for work lopping and felling trees.

One group claims to be “approved by the CFA”.  One of residents checked this with the CFA who confirmed that they would never “approve” any such business.

Another, group duped one of our residents by doing work that had been booked with an established arborist. They did a terrible job, ignoring safety procedures, leaving a mess and damage to the property!

I would recommend checking out anyone making claims on the doorstep with a reference from a customer, checking that they are a bone fide business with appropriate levels of insurance.

Below is another letter from David Packham on the fire risk, or lack of it, for Wednesday 16 December.

Regards Ralph

The second letter from Willung to Licola for the 2009/2010 fire season. Sunday 13/10/2009. Dear Ralph The recent rain events have greatly lowered the [...]]]> From David Packham via Ralph at Licola:

Greetings everyone

Below is another letter from David Packham on the fire risk, or lack of it,
for Wednesday 16 December.

Regards Ralph

The second letter from Willung to Licola for the 2009/2010 fire season.
Sunday 13/10/2009.
Dear Ralph
The recent rain events have greatly lowered the strategic fire risk. The
Ketch- Byram Drought Index (KBDI) has fallen by about 20 mm in the last two
weeks whereas we would have expected it to rise by about 15 throughout the
state. The KBDI is now more average.
The deep litter in the wet forests may be still unusually dry even though
the surface fuels have taken up the recent rain. I do not expect that we
will have any catastrophic fires or even any serious fires for the rest of
2009 or even into the first two weeks of January.
The four-day fire weather forecast is showing an extreme fire weather day
for next Wednesday 16 Dec. Such an early extreme day can be very serious,
for example the Lara fires on 8 Jan 1969 caused 16 deaths, fourteen along
the Melbourne – Geelong Road. However that was a month later and we
currently have significant greenness and useful recent moisture.
The predictions for Wednesday 16 Dec 2009 show an average FFDI for Victoria
of 45 with Tullamarine (my worst case indicator) forecast to be 71 for
forests but only 12 for grasslands. The Victorian FFDI translates to a rate
of spread of 1.6 kph. Flame heights of 26m and maximum spotting of 4.8 km.
The Byram Fire Intensity Index is 24 Megawatt per metre, which is ten times
the maximum for frontal attack and at least twice the maximum survival level
if caught in the fire front. If a major fire occurs the maximum deaths
could go as high as 16 for the State. However at this stage I would
expect that the recent rain and the low curing state would result in a lot
of noise and no major fires. It looks as though some tropical rain may
occur with the change which would return things to normal very quickly.
I expect that with the present sensitivity any even small fires that occur
will be beaten up. It will be essential to monitor Wednesday as it
approaches to detect any worsening or easing in the fire weather that is
being forecast.
If there is no more rain then the second or third weeks in January 2010 may
result in some bushfires if the McArthur Fire Danger Index (FFDI) climbs
over 50. Similar comments may be made for the Grasslands although a sudden
drying or curing could occur in the last week of December.
I notice that the afternoon analysis is including a serious change for the
NE on Thursday with embedded thunderstorms. With the tropical moisture
around it could be serious for those areas with bare soils as a result of
the high fuel levels that were burnt in 2007 and 2009. I hope without any
avidence that the 2003 disaster area have recovered enough to be less
dangerous to high rainfall events.
I do hope Wednesday and Thursday turn out to be without problems as the folk
of Victoria have truly had enough.
Best regards David

The fire weather estimates for Thursday 19 Nov 2009 are looking a little concerning.

The Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) for the North West of the State is in the 60 – 90 range, the Grass Fire Danger Index (GFDI) is in the 40 – 60 range. Both of [...]]]> Article from David Packham

The fire weather estimates for Thursday 19 Nov 2009 are looking a little concerning.

The Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) for the North West of the State is in the 60 – 90 range, the Grass Fire Danger Index (GFDI) is in the 40 – 60 range.
Both of these indices are such as to cause serious fire behaviour.
The predicted rate of spread would be around 3 kph in the forests with heavy fuels. The predicted flame heights are around 40 metres with spotting up to 3km. The Byram Fire Intensity for the forests about 50 Megawatts per metre some twenty times greater than firefighting capability (2.5 Megawatts per metre being the limit to direct attack).

The very dry areas around Bendigo and Shepparton are somewhat similar but the grass greenness is keeping the GFDI at a manageable level, in other words good firefighting in the grasslands should be successful but not so in the heavy forests and I might add along the neglected roadsides.

The central areas, for example Tullamarine, look serious for forests with FFDI just reaching the 50 mark, the GFDI with an estimated curing of around 50% ( half the grass stalks are still green) is sufficiently low to be initially manageable with good fire fighting and very early response. I would not be surprised if the curing did not rise rapidly during the day as happened during the Lara Fires in 1969.

The West, Northeast and Gippsland both look difficult except for the grasslands in the West where the grass is still apparently all green .

The serious concern for me is the synoptic situation which like Ash Wednesday 1983 is proving difficult for the forecasters. They have gone for a “more pessimistic forecast” thus the analysis above could be worse than what actually occurs.

The problem is our old enemy the Southwest wind change. If it is a prolonged and nasty one like Ash Wednesday the results could be very difficult. The problem being the response times of the fuels which remain dry just after the wind change even though the FFDI and the GFDI show them becoming much more moist. That is because we are using the models beyond their capability.

I would suggest that we watch carefully the developments in the systems over the next few days whilst preparing for a possible big fire event on Thursday (due to the heavy grass and forest fuels and the ignored roadsides). On Thursday the major threat would come in the late afternoon and the timing of the wind change will be critical.

This early in the season normally I would discount any real fire problems but the dryness continues and we could be in for an unpleasant surprise.

With a little luck the forecasts may change as the weather systems develop and the day may pass us with a whimper rather than a shout.

Once again I hope the above analysis turns out to be wrong.

David Packham

Proudly presented by

Kinglake Action Network & Development Organisation (KANDO)

and Permaculture Kinglake Ranges

DATE:              Sunday 8th November VENUE:            Kinglake Temporary Village Hall, [...]]]>

A F T E R   T H E   F I R E S

Re-Designing and Re-Building Resilient Communities

Proudly presented by

Kinglake Action Network & Development Organisation (KANDO)

and Permaculture Kinglake Ranges

DATE:              Sunday 8^th November

VENUE:            Kinglake Temporary Village Hall, Heidelberg-Kinglake Road, Kinglake

TIME:               10am – 5pm

COST:              Voluntary donation to cover speaker costs and future Forums on bushfire resilient communities.

10am – 12pm Designing for resilience

• Phil Gall is an architect, landscape architect and permaculture designer.

12-1.15pm Lunch

1.15pm – 2.45pm Field Trip

• Dr Kevin Tolhurst will look at the local factors contributing to the intensity of Black Saturday bushfires and vegetation recovery.

3.15pm – 4.15pm Reducing the risk of bushfire

• Dr. Kevin Tolhurst is Senior Lecturer in Fire Ecology and Management at the University of Melbourne and adviser to CFA & DSE officers.

The tragedy of Victoria’s ‘Black Saturday’ bushfire is highly likely to be repeated unless there are attitude changes whereby people take greater personal responsibility for fire preparedness. The Victorian Bushfire Royal Commission’s interim report released 17.8.09 with [...]]]> A ‘Community Fire Safety Maturity Grid’ could be the answer!

By Kelvin Blackney MASSE, FSIA, RSP (Aust)

The tragedy of Victoria’s ‘Black Saturday’ bushfire is highly likely to be repeated unless there are attitude changes whereby people take greater personal responsibility for fire preparedness.
The Victorian Bushfire Royal Commission’s interim report released 17.8.09 with 51 recommendations http://www.royalcommission.vic.gov.au/Interim-Report is intended to be implemented before the 2009/10 bushfire season.
If the recommendations are put into practice, there’s no doubt Victoria will be better prepared than on February 7 2009.
An area of concern, however is with Recommendation 7.2 that calls for more useful advice being given to people within bushfire prone areas and the CFA give consideration as to how it should advise residents about the defendability of their homes.
The Safety Institute’s National Technical Panel made the point in its submission to the Victorian Bushfire Royal Commission on 18.5.09 that: “Consideration should be given to how a positive community fire safety culture can be developed in Victoria. Read the Full Article on page 4 of the SIAWA Oct 09 Journal